- Potential $100–250bn asset class formation
- Catalyst for state prosperity, private capital
Business a.m. Reporter
Nigeria’s power sector, the country’s decades-long troubled leg of its economy, holds potential for annual revenue in excess of $50 billion or N70 trillion, says a power and energy infrastructure strategist, in an exclusive paper sent to Business a.m.
In a five-part series running for the next five weeks outlining the enormous opportunities in the country’s power sector, but which opens with a teaser introduction in this edition, Masah Emmanuel Ikus, principal consulting partner at EMI Resources Limited, writes that the Nigerian power sector may be one of the most misunderstood opportunity sets in emerging markets by investors.
For Nigerian sub-national governments and their leaders, Ikus said the sector “may be one of the strongest available tools for industrialisation, job creation, and revenue growth.
A trained electrical engineer with over 27 years of experience managing complex infrastructure projects across the ICT, oil and gas, and power sectors, and specialising in the design of decentralised power systems and solar integration, Ikus is challenging the narrative that has surrounded Nigeria’s power situation as a problem to be solved, suggesting instead for it to be seen as “ a market to be built.”
Ikus writes that beneath the widely recognised challenges that power generation and supply have become for Nigerians, businesses and governments, “lies a less discussed reality,” and which is that “Nigeria’s electricity shortage is not only a national constraint; it is also one of the largest underdeveloped infrastructure opportunities on the African continent.”
According to the power and energy strategist, while speaking of opportunity in a sector defined by grid collapse and rising costs may appear like blind optimism, “for the strategic investor, the depth of the failure is actually the measure of the market’s size,” he writes.
This market has been created by the gap between current supply and real demand, Ikus stated, and he goes on to explain that this market spans
- Generation, transmission, and distribution
- Mini-grids and embedded power
- Solar systems and gas infrastructure
- Battery storage and metering
- Energy services and long-term project finance
The sector, he said, is not just an infrastructural gap, it is a potential $100 billion to $250 billion asset class formation, with annual revenues that could exceed $50 billion (approximately ₦70 trillion).
According to him, this is in stark contrast to the approximately ₦2.97 trillion industry invoice figures currently billed to the DisCos by the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) PLC.
“That gap represents a massive frontier for investors and state governments across the industry value chain. We must ‘remember not to forget’ that Nigerians are not refusing to pay for power; they are refusing to overpay for unreliability,” Ikus explained.
For many Nigerians, electricity has long been associated with frustration brought about by outages, unstable supply, rising energy costs, damaged equipment, and the constant burden of self-generation, Ikus writes, adding that of recent, a new phrase has been added to the lexicon of power supply frustration: “grid collapse.”
He noted that for businesses, the challenge is even more expensive, with millions of enterprises — from small shops to major manufacturers — having to factor power uncertainty into their daily operations.
He noted that the World Bank has estimated that businesses in Nigeria lose about $29 billion every year due to unreliable electricity supply.
“Across homes, offices, factories, and markets, generators, inverters, batteries, and solar backups have become part of normal economic life,” Ikus stated.
On the back of this, the five-part series will explore the following:
- Market opportunity: Why the electricity deficit represents a multi-billion-dollar asset class.
- Renewable potential: Where the strongest opportunities in solar, gas, hydro, and other renewable sources now lie.
- Legislative impact: How the Electricity Act 2023 could make some states much wealthier than others.
- Financing growth: How Nigeria can fund power expansion through domestic capital, remittances, and smarter financial structures.
- Risk mitigation: The real risks in the market — and how serious investors and governments can navigate them.
“This is not an argument for blind optimism. Nigeria’s power sector faces significant structural challenges; however, it also possesses real demand, real paying customers, real reform momentum, and real room for commercially viable solutions,” Ikus stated.
