Nigeria maintained crude oil production above the 1.5 million barrels-per-day (bpd) threshold for a third consecutive month in July, strengthening the supply base for local refineries even as output eased from June, latest OPEC data show.
The country produced 1.505 million bpd in July, down 50,000 bpd from 1.555 million bpd in June, according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
Despite the month-on-month decline, the latest output represents a significant improvement over Nigeria’s first-quarter performance and points to a more sustained recovery in upstream production after several years of underperformance.
Upstream recovery strengthens refinery supply
Nigeria’s crude production averaged 1.525 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 1.388 million bpd in the first quarter, representing an increase of about 9.9 percent.
Production had averaged 1.415 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.432 million bpd for the full year, highlighting the improvement recorded in the first half of 2026.
The recovery accelerated in May, when output reached 1.530 million bpd, marking the first time in 2026 that production moved above the 1.5 million bpd level.
Although July output slipped below May and June levels, maintaining production around 1.5 million bpd provides a stronger supply base for the country’s emerging refining capacity.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that local refineries received 53.7 million barrels of crude between April and June, equivalent to 97.4 percent of the volume required under the domestic crude supply framework.
The combination of rising upstream output and improved domestic crude deliveries could become increasingly important as Nigeria seeks to reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products.
Nigeria retains Africa’s top producer position
Nigeria also remained ahead of other major African oil producers monitored by OPEC in July.
Libya produced 1.391 million bpd, while Algeria recorded 995,000 bpd. OPEC did not provide July figures for Congo and Gabon in the data cited.
Nigeria’s stronger second-quarter performance therefore reinforces its position as Africa’s leading crude producer, although output remains below the levels required to fully exploit the country’s substantial petroleum reserves.
NUPRC has estimated Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate reserves at 37.01 billion barrels as of January 1, 2026, alongside 215.19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.
Refineries create new demand channel
The growing flow of crude to domestic refineries introduces another dimension to Nigeria’s upstream recovery.
Historically, much of the country’s crude production has been directed toward export markets, while domestic fuel consumption has depended heavily on imported refined products.
As refining capacity expands, a larger share of domestic crude production could potentially be absorbed locally, creating a closer link between upstream output and domestic energy security.
The 53.7 million barrels supplied to local refineries in the second quarter provide an early indication of that shift.
For Nigeria, sustained production above 1.5 million bpd would therefore have implications beyond export earnings. It could improve crude availability for domestic processors, strengthen refinery utilisation and support a more integrated oil-value chain.
The key test for the industry now is whether the recent production recovery can be sustained and expanded enough to support both export revenues and the country’s growing domestic refining ambitions.
